On April 9th of this year, I wrote in this blog that the Chinese stock markets were going crazy by reaching new peaks every day and that it was better to get out of Chinese stocks. In the months that followed, the stock markets in China took a hit and lost more than 50% of its value – in fact, the declining trend was put to a pause only because of the aggressive interference by the Chinese government (there are still thousands of companies whose trading is yet to resume after the Chinese regulators halted them).
Today, the Chinese government shocked (or should I say annoyed) the global financial markets by devaluing its currency, Renminbi, by 1.9% against the US dollar and other major currencies. I was not shocked. This move by the Chinese made a lot of people in the US and other parts of the world who trade with China angry complaining that this devaluation was giving an unfair advantage to Chinese exports. It did not make me angry, though I felt a little sense of “missed opportunity”.
The Chinese authorities set a reference rate every day for the renminbi against the US dollar and other major currencies – and allow the currency to trade within a band of 2% from that reference rate (plus or minus 2%). In currency markets, they call this as “managed float” of a currency. It has to be noted that the band was much less than 2% years ago and over the course of the years, China has increased the trading band to 2% with the reference rate as the mid-point.
I, as most people, would like to see the renminbi to freely float. And I, as most people, would like to see the renminbi appreciate in value rather than depreciate in value (given China’s account surpluses, it is only natural to expect the renminbi to appreciate over the long run to a more stable and fair value). But all that said, today’s devaluation of the renminbi has caused over reaction in the markets and among policy makers, people and politicians.
In the recent past, I have advocated for a stronger renminbi through interference in the markets – a.k.a currency manipulation. The reason for that is that I am counting on China in the years and decades to come to create a global engine of consumer-driven growth. And in many respects, it is time for China to start taking up that role – given their account surpluses, forex reserves, state investments plateauing and their massive population. But what I am talking about is a significant re-structuring of the economy that would initially slow down the growth by a significant margin before picking up steam. And that requires enormous political will in a communist nation. Today’s action made it clear that the government is not ready yet to go through that tough road of re-structuring. Fine, that’s ok, but I am atleast expecting that they would take the smooth road of re-structuring – which they seem to be. In other words, if I have to wait for the renminbi to depreciate first before it starts appreciating, then I am ready to do that – provided there won’t be any artificial hindrance to its appreciation when the time comes.
Other than that, all the hue and cry about today’s action by the Chinese monetary authorities to devalue the renminbi is not warranted, in my opinion. Everyone demands China to float their currency freely (and I do too, though I am okay with a managed float during extreme volatility) and if China had indeed freely floated their currency, we would have seen the renminbi to depreciate far more in value this year than the 1.9% that the authorities devalued there. The Chinese economy has been doing terribly this year, there has been an exodus of foreign money from stock markets – and all this should have dented the renminbi to a significant extent (well above the 1.9% devalued today) even if it were left to market forces. Instead the renminbi stayed stronger than the market would have priced it because the renminbi tracked the strengthening US dollar throughout this year.
One significant change that the Chinese authorities did today is to start taking the previous day’s final value of the renminbi into their calculation rather than the previous day’s reference rate to set the next day’s reference rate. This is akin to dancing with the markets in the direction the markets take the currency’s value. In my mind, this is a significant and a positive change in the way the “managed-float” of the renminbi is carried out on a daily basis. If China had followed this methodology from the start of this year, we would have seen the renminbi depreciate by 1.9% (or even more) by now – albeit that would have been a gradual depreciation rather than today’s sudden devaluation.
What is important for the US and other trading partners of China is not to complain about their actions today, but rather to welcome it and make sure that China follows the same methodology even during times when the market forces pull the currency in the opposite direction (when the renminbi is supposed to appreciate). And the US and other trading countries should also put pressure on China to gradually increase the trading band to 3% or more instead of the 2% that they currently have (and make sure that China actually allows the value of its currency to reach the upper and lower limits of the band if the supply and demand requires it to).The pressure could also be put to eliminate other forms of capital control that China currently has in place.
And by the way, on a different issue, as long as China maintains a trading band for its currency on a daily basis, the renminbi should NOT be added to the basket of reserve currency list by the International Monetary Fund.
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